Q3/2021 - NATO

Rede von NATO-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg auf der 17th Annual NATO Conference on Arms Control, Disarmament and Weapons of Mass Destruction, Brüssel, 6. September 2021

Bei einer Rede am 6. September 2021 äußerte sich NATO-Generalsekretär Jens Stoltenberg ausführlich zu den Herausforderungen, die neue Technologien für mögliche zukünftige militärische Auseinandersetzungen und Abrüstungsverhandlungen mit sich bringen. „We need to address the consequences of new disruptive technologies or artificial intelligence, facial recognition, autonomous systems and especially when they are merged together in new weapon systems, the consequences they have for arms control but of course also for our overall security.“ Es würde weitgehend unterschätzt, wie disruptive internet-basierte Technologien die Natur kriegerischer Auseinandersetzungen im digitalen Zeitalter verändern.

Stoltenberg sagte, dass der bislang stets vorhandene Technologievorsprung des Westens gegenüber potenziellen Feinden nicht mehr als gegeben angenommen werden kann. Das zeige z.B. das neue russische „Hypersonic Glide Vehicle System“. Die Diskussionen um 5G hätten ins Bewusstsein gerufen, dass man in einem dramatischen Technologiewettbewerb steht. Man dürfe potenzielle Feinde nicht mit modernster Technologie versorgen oder sich den Spion ins Haus holen. Er schlage kein neues COCOM vor. COCOM war im kalten Krieg von der NATO als Instrument entwickelt worden, um eine Technologie-Transferbarriere zwischen Ost und West zu errichten und die Sowjetunion daran zu hindern, im Westen z.B. Computertechnologie einzukaufen. COCOM sei kein Modell, man müsse aber über die sich aus der technologischen Revolution für das Militär ergebenden Konsequenzen reden.

Stoltenberg warnte auch vor der Gefahr des Hereinschlitterns in eine militärische Auseinandersetzung. Vor dem 1. Weltkrieg hätten die Regierungen die Konsequenzen der industriellen Revolution für moderne Kriegsführung – z.B. der Entwicklung des Flugwesens und der Chemie - unterschätzt und man sei in eine Katastrophe hineingestolpert. „Living in Belgium, I've learned a lot about the First World War and how the world underestimated the consequences of the Industrial Revolution, or on warfare. And we just must avoid doing the same mistake that even if we in theory, know that all these new technologies would totally change how wars are fought or weapons are working, and that we realize those dangers before we end up in a situation where we really need to get this tested for real.“

Auch Abrüstungsverhandlungen müssten neu durchdacht werden. Solange es bei diesen Verhandlungen um die Zahl von Panzern, Flugzeugen oder Sprengköpfen ging, war es relativ einfach, sich zu verständigen und einen Kompromiss zu finden. Mit autonomen Waffensystemen sei das schwieriger. „Because as long as arms control was very much about counting warheads, I think it was, was a relatively easy to agree. But now when we need to, in a way, deal with algorithms, artificial intelligence, totally different systems, we haven't really developed the tools, the parameters to decide what is verifiable and balanced arms controlled in cyberspace, and with all these new disruptive technologies. I'm absolutely certain it's possible, but we need them, the experts, we need the political will, we need this combination of real experts on these different technologies combined with the the political leadership.“[1]

Rede des stellvertretenden NATO-Generalsekretärs Mircea Geoană auf der AI & Cyber Konferenz, Sofia 28. September 2021

In einer Rede auf einer Expertenkonferenz zur künstlichen Intelligenz am 28. September 2021 in Sofia hat sich der stellvertretende NATO-Generalsekretär Mircea Geoană erneut zum Thema Cybersicherheit und künstliche Intelligenz (KI) geäußert[2]. Er warnte wie in früheren Reden vor einem „Sputnik-Moment“, d.h. einem Vorsprung Russlands oder Chinas bei autonomen Waffensystemen. „Future conflicts will be increasingly defined by bytes and big data, as much as bullets and battleships“. Geoană informierte über Pläne zur Schaffung eines „Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA), den er eine „innovation pipeline across the Atlantic“ nannte, sowie über einen neuen „NATO Innovation Fund“. Beide Initiativen sollen beim nächsten NATO-Gipfel in Madrid im Sommer 2022 verabschiedungsreif sein. Die NATO müsse noch enger mit der Industrie and akademischen Einrichtungen zusammenarbeiten, um den technischen Vorsprung gegenüber China und Russland behaupten zu können. Ziel der neuen Initiativen sei es „to encourage all Allies to work even more closely together with industry, with start ups and academia, to develop the next generation of technologies, in order to meet our defence and security needs…and to invest in start-ups, developing cutting edge dual use technologies.“. Der „Chief Scientist“ der NATO würde mittlerweile mit einer Kerngruppe zusammenarbeiten, der 5.000 Experten aus allen Teilnehmerländern der NATO angehören. „The depth, the sophistication of our triple helix of public sector, private sector and academia is unrivalled in the world.“[3]  

Mehr zum Thema
Q3/2021NATO
  1. [1] Remarks by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at the 17th Annual NATO Conference on, Arms Control, Disarmament and Weapons of Mass Destruction Non-Proliferation, 6. September 2021: „I think it's extremely important to be aware of the technological dimension related to arms control, and under the development of many new weapon systems as I also mentioned in one way or another, we need to address the consequences of new disruptive technologies or artificial intelligence, facial recognition, autonomous systems and especially when they are merged together in new weapon systems, the consequences they have for arms control but of course also for our overall security. At the NATO summit, as part of the NATO 2030 agenda, we actually made technology, a very important task, because we, as also referred to in the question, our technological edge has always helped to keep us safe and NATO allies and NATO have all the has over handed that technological edge, this edge is now challenged. Not least by the fact that, that, that China is investing so heavily in new technologies that also can be weaponized, used in new different weapon systems, and we have seen for instance, the new hypersonic glide vehicle system on Russia, as an example also how new technologies are used. So, first of all, we need to make sure that we maintain our technological edge, that we invest together, developed together as NATO allies, technologies, and that's exactly what we do also with the initiative agreed at the NATO Summit to develop a new mechanism to promote, to support technological development among NATO allied countries. We call it DIANA that is a transatlantic institution that should help to further strengthen what we do together on technology. We also need to address resilience and so our societies. We have a very important discussion I think, on 5G, and we have seen already the differences between NATO allies, but we have seen a significant convergence of view on the importance of actually understanding the importance of resilience when it comes to critical infrastructure, including technology. And then the question of, that we need to at least prevent or avoid ending up in a situation, when we invest heavily in new advanced technologies, and then make them easily available for other countries which are using these technologies to develop weapon systems which are a threat to us. I don't suggest that we should re-establish COCOM, but of course there were reasons to have that discussion during the Cold War, to have that tool as a way to prevent the free flow of technologies from the West to the Soviet Union, and we need to be aware of the same challenges now. And I think that NATO is a perfect platform for addressing these issues, because we are the only place where North American and Europe meet every day. Of course there are important discussions within, on the resilience technology within the European Union, within different NATO allied countries. But NATO is the framework, the big foundational platform, where all these countries and North America can come together and try to develop some kind of common understanding on technology, policies on technology, but also on how to make sure that we actually keep the technological edge, and that means also not sharing everything with other countries without also assessing the consequences for the development of new novel weapon systems. If we can just add one more thing on technologies that I don't think that we fully realized how much these new disruptive technologies are changing the nature of warfare. Living in Belgium, I've learned a lot about the First World War and how the world underestimated the consequences of the Industrial Revolution, or on warfare. And we just must avoid doing the same mistake that even if we in theory, know that all these new technologies would totally change how wars are fought or weapons are working, and that we realize those dangers before we end up in a situation where we really need to get this tested for real. And then of course, also some serious challenges for arms control, because as long as arms control was very much about counting warheads, I think it was, was a relatively easy to agree. But now when we need to, in a way, deal with algorithms, artificial intelligence, totally different systems, we haven't really developed the tools, the parameters to decide what is verifiable and balanced arms controlled in cyberspace, and with all these new disruptive technologies. I'm absolutely certain it's possible, but we need them, the experts, we need the political will, we need this combination of real experts on these different technologies combined with the […..] the political leadership.“ In: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_186295.htm?selectedLocale=en
  2. [2] NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană at the AI & Cyber Conference titled “An Abundance of Potential”, Sofia, 28. September 2021, „Because new technologies are changing our world, our economies, our societies, our geopolitics, but also our security, at record speed. From the smartphone in our pockets and from the punch than the computer, it was a reference to the Sputnik moment that was putting a man on the moon, a few decades ago, things have evolved tremendously. And sophisticated cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns threaten our economies, societies and democracies. And future conflicts will be increasingly defined by bytes and big data, as much as bullets and battleships. And also authoritarian regimes that do not share our values or play by the same rules, by the way, are aggressively vying for technological dominance. China and Russia are racing to develop new technologies, from AI to autonomous systems, to hypersonic weapons or robotics. So, technology is moving fast and we must move even faster to retain the technological edge that has helped keep us safe for more than 70 years. And this is good news that NATO is doing just that.” In: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_186938.htm?selectedLocale=en
  3. [3] And our open societies, I always say this and I repeat this every single time, is that open societies, when people can think freely, when people can act freely, when people are not afraid of being the victims and not the beneficiaries of new technologies, is the place, is the ecosystem that will prevail in this very intense competition for the commanding heights of technology in the 21st century. Artificial Intelligence, because this is one of the topics of your conference, is probably the most pervasive, especially when it is combined with others, like big data, autonomy or biotechnology. AI will revolutionalise the way we defence ourselves, so it's a natural thing that NATO has AI as a priority. In October this year, Allies will agree our very first AI strategy, with robust principles for responsible use that will be at the core of this new strategy. There was a discussion before I joined your conference about the ethical norms, the moral norms, the democratic norms that should be at the heart of the usage of these new technologies. This we're here in NATO, the organisation that is the setter of gold standards when it comes to defence and security, as the EU has the power of regulation, NATO has the power of setting standards of the highest possible level, in everything we do. This is why we're committed on AI to set the standard when it comes to the ethical use in the defence and security realm.